Methods for split conformal prediction leverage calibration samples to transform any prediction rule into a set-prediction rule that complies with a target coverage probability. Existing methods provide remarkably strong performance guarantees with minimal computational costs. However, they require the use calibration samples composed by labeled examples different to those used for training. This requirement can be highly inconvenient, as it prevents the use of all labeled examples for training and may require acquiring additional labels solely for calibration. This paper presents an effective methodology for split conformal prediction with unsupervised calibration for classification tasks.

Methods for split conformal prediction leverage calibration samples to transform any prediction rule into a set-prediction rule that complies with a target coverage probability. Existing methods provide remarkably strong performance guarantees with minimal computational costs. However, they require the use calibration samples composed by labeled examples different to those used for training. This requirement can be highly inconvenient, as it prevents the use of all labeled examples for training and may require acquiring additional labels solely for calibration. This paper presents an effective methodology for split conformal prediction with unsupervised calibration for classification tasks. In the proposed approach, set-prediction rules are obtained using unsupervised calibration samples together with supervised training samples previously used to learn the classification rule. Theoretical and experimental results show that the presented methods can achieve performance comparable to that with supervised calibration, at the expenses of a moderate degradation in performance guarantees and computational efficiency.

We propose a new partial-observability model for online learning problems where the learner, besides its own loss, also observes some noisy feedback about the other actions, depending on the underlying structure of the problem. We represent this structure by a weighted directed graph, where the edge weights are related to the quality of the feedback shared by the connected nodes. Our main contribution is an efficient algorithm that guarantees a regret of $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{α^* T})$ after $T$ rounds, where $α^*$ is a novel graph property that we call the effective independence number. Our algorithm is completely parameter-free and does not require knowledge (or even estimation) of $α^*$. For the special case of binary edge weights, our setting reduces to the partial-observability models of Mannor and Shamir (2011) and Alon et al. (2013) and our algorithm recovers the near-optimal regret bounds.

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We study causal subset selection with Directed Information as the measure of prediction causality. Two typical tasks, causal sensor placement and covariate selection, are correspondingly formulated into cardinality constrained directed information maximizations. To attack the NP-hard problems, we show that the first problem is submodular while not necessarily monotonic. And the second one is "nearly" submodular. To substantiate the idea of approximate submodularity, we introduce a novel quantity, namely submodularity index (SmI), for general set functions. Moreover, we show that based on SmI, greedy algorithm has performance guarantee for the maximization of possibly non-monotonic and non-submodular functions, justifying its usage for a much broader class of problems. We evaluate the theoretical results with several case studies, and also illustrate the application of the subset selection to causal structure learning.

Based on our theoretical analysis, we propose an active learning algorithm that employs regret minimization to minimize the FIR.

Bwk work Liu et al. (2022), we do not require a bounded global variation.

There aretwointeresting andwell-studied computational paradigms aimed attackling uncertainty.